Epidemic Dynamics Kinetic Model and Its Testing on the Covid-19 Epidemic Spread Data
نویسندگان
چکیده
A kinetic model has been proposed for the spread of epidemics, describing dynamics variation in number disease-free, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases, based on a lag logistic equation. It established that this predicts possibility existence quasi-steady-state mode an epidemic which infected cases is constant due to balance daily increment infections recoveries. Conditions have identified under such can be source advance second wave. The COVID-19 pandemic data were used show reliable forecasts period up two months.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of engineering physics and thermophysics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1573-871X', '1062-0125']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10891-021-02268-y